'US labor market is largest risk markets'

amsterdam - Not China's shadow banks, Brexit or North Korea, but the United States labor market is the most pronounced risk for financial markets.

Especially the shrinking number of suitable employees is a source of concern for the growth of the largest economy in the world, says the American index follower Vanguard, also shortly after BlackRock the largest asset manager in the world.

According to all strategists, growth is global, there is sufficient capital in the market and volatility in the markets is low.

'We agree with this long-term economic outlook, but we think the chances of a short cyclical downturn are undervalued in the short term,' said Joseph Davis, chief economist of the fund with $ 4.5 trillion under management (BlackRock $ 5.7 trillion).

'The clearest risk for the status quo is in the United States, where an already tight labor market is getting tighter,' Davis refers to unemployment that has fallen below 4%.

With rising wages, it justifies an increase in the Federal Reserve's rate of up to 2% at the end of this year. This automatically leads to more pressure on new interest rate increases, according to Vanguard, which works with a cooperative structure, with the funds and index trackers owning the management organization.