World
November 25, 2024 13:40
tel aviv - Israel and Hezbollah are said to have reached an agreement on the main points of a ceasefire deal, with Israel retaining the right to take military action if the terms are violated.
Israel and Hezbollah are said to have reached an agreement on the main points of a ceasefire deal, with Israel retaining the right to take military action if the terms are violated.
The United States has increased pressure in recent days. Lebanon envoy Amos Hochstein warned that this is his last attempt to reach an agreement after a year of fruitless negotiations. If unsuccessful, negotiations will be on hold until Donald Trump takes office, which could be almost two months.
The recent increase in attacks is likely a sign that a deal is close: a final offensive to apply pressure. Hezbollah fired over 250 rockets at Israel on Sunday, with more alarms on Monday morning.
Hezbollah has also threatened a devastating attack on Tel Aviv if Israel continues to target Beirut. Despite this, the Israeli air force has been active in the Lebanese capital, resulting in dozens of casualties over the past weekend. Both sides are playing a high-stakes game and a small miscalculation could derail the process.
Last week, the parties were close to a deal, but the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant caused a delay. Lebanon is pushing for France to be part of the international committee overseeing the ceasefire. Israel was initially hesitant after France indicated it would comply with the ICC warrants, though this stance was later softened.
The composition of the committee and the timing for discussions on more permanent issues, such as the exact border between Israel and Lebanon, are still being negotiated. There is hope for a resolution this week. Netanyahu is reportedly planning a public relations campaign to sell the accord to the population, aiming to prevent it from being seen as a compromise.
According to Israeli media, the agreement includes Hezbollah withdrawing behind the Litani River, 10 to 20 kilometers from the Israeli border, after the ceasefire comes into effect. The Israeli army will then leave southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army and UN troops responsible for monitoring the agreement. If the Lebanese army fails to act against Hezbollah violations, Israel can intervene. This provision will not be part of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, but a separate deal with the US.
This allows Israel to act if it perceives a threat to the north or if Hezbollah tries to smuggle heavy weapons. It remains uncertain whether this commitment will be enough to convince tens of thousands of Israelis to return to their homes in northern Israel, the official goal of the war against Hezbollah. The terror group did not adhere to the UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Israel. Debates on what constitutes a violation of the ceasefire will likely arise, keeping the risk of violence alive.