World
October 3, 2024 21:30
amsterdam - Iran's nuclear program has been a thorn in the side of Israel for years. How quickly can Iran develop a nuclear bomb?
Following the massive ballistic missile attack by Tehran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued unprecedented war rhetoric. He warned of a 'high price' for the enemy, while a senior UN diplomat spoke of a response 'harsher than Tehran could ever imagine'. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions once and for all.
Bennett's suggestion sparked a debate. The Iranian nuclear program has been a concern for many Israelis for decades. Netanyahu has made it his life goal to prevent Iran from becoming the world's tenth nuclear power. However, the country seems very close to achieving that status. A former head of the Iranian nuclear program recently compared it to having all the parts of a car but needing to assemble them.
Last year, Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that Iran had enough highly enriched uranium for about three nuclear weapons. In August, the IAEA revised this estimate to more than double that amount. The uranium is currently enriched to about 60%, while a purity of 90% is required for a nuclear bomb.
Estimates on how long it will take for Iran to develop a usable nuclear weapon vary widely, from a few weeks or even days to at least a year.
Experts disagree on the timeframe, with some saying it could take months. The uncertainty is due to the complexity of the final steps in creating a functional nuclear weapon. Uranium enrichment is just the first step, requiring advanced metallurgy and technology.
The process is more challenging than anticipated, posing health risks to workers. Once a bomb is created, a complex testing process is needed to ensure it will detonate in a wartime scenario.
Regardless of the timeline, Netanyahu and many Israelis feel there is no time to waste. The prime minister consistently warns the world about the looming Iranian nuclear threat and occasionally threatens a surprise attack on Iranian facilities.
While the West monitors Tehran's nuclear ambitions closely, Israel has never succeeded in garnering support for a military solution from its allies. The fear of irreversible escalation in the Middle East outweighs the concern about an Iranian nuclear bomb.
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden made it clear that he does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The White House fears further escalation that could draw US forces into the conflict, potentially impacting the upcoming elections.
For Israel, destroying the notorious Fordow facility would require American assistance. The complex, with around a thousand centrifuges, is buried 100 meters underground.
Israel lacks the necessary weapons and aircraft to reach the site, relying on its American ally. Experts warn that attacking Iranian nuclear installations may drive Iran to militarize its nuclear program further, going underground and expelling foreign inspectors.