World
November 5, 2024 16:30
united states - As the US presidential election approaches, polls show a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with researchers being careful not to make the same mistakes as in previous elections.
If the polls are correct, the US is in for a thrilling election on Tuesday. The results show one thing: researchers are being cautious not to repeat the same mistakes as in 2016 and 2020. And this could work in favor of Kamala Harris.
The verdict is clear: Donald Trump (78) and Kamala Harris (60) have an equal chance of winning the race to the White House. In the 'popular vote' - the total number of votes across the country - Harris is slightly ahead of Trump, but the national vote does not determine the outcome in the United States. It's the individual states, particularly in the seven 'swing states' (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina). The crucial electoral votes in these states could go either red or blue. The percentages in these states are all so close that they fall within the margin of error.
The latest minor shifts indicate that Harris, who saw her lead in some swing states diminish, seems to be coming back up. Websites like FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin are combining poll results to provide a more accurate picture, giving more weight to certain polls based on methodological quality. However, even they admit that predicting the winner on January 20 is still uncertain due to the lack of significant movement in the polls.
The neck-and-neck race does not necessarily indicate how election night will unfold or how quickly a winner will be determined. Most polls have a margin of error of 2.5%. However, some experts argue that this figure is too low, with figures closer to 3.8% or even 6.6% being more accurate. It is possible, given the current scenario, for both Harris and Trump to win all swing states and secure a decisive victory, although the likelihood of this is slim.
Some professors find the polls peculiar, noting that a significant number of polls in the swing states have extremely small margins. They question the plausibility of such consistently close results, especially in key states like Pennsylvania.
Polls, even in tightly contested elections, typically show fluctuations. However, the current trend seems relatively stable due to pollsters' fear of repeating past mistakes, such as underestimating Trump in 2016 or overestimating Biden in 2020. There has been a concerted effort to correct for these past errors by placing greater emphasis on factors like demographics, education level, region, party affiliation, and voter preferences. This intentional adjustment aims to better reflect the voices of Trump supporters.
Nate Silver from Silver Bulletin also highlights the phenomenon of 'herding', whereby polling agencies tend to conform to the consensus to avoid significant deviations. Hence, even if a scenario like Harris winning Michigan by 5% or Trump winning by 2% occurs, most polls will not be deemed inaccurate due to the margin of error.
According to experts, there is a possibility that the overcorrection and herding may underestimate Kamala Harris' chances. Factors like party affiliation and past voting behavior could be creating a skewed perception, particularly in relation to younger voters and Republican women, especially in states with abortion referendums.
Polls are not definitive or predictive, but rather snapshots in time. The outcome in the seven pivotal states, not all of which need to be won, remains highly uncertain. Despite corrections for previous biases, the ultimate outcome will likely be determined by voter turnout. Early analysis of the 77 million Americans who have already voted suggests a high turnout of around 150 million, traditionally favoring Democrats. However, Republicans have also mobilized heavily to secure as many early votes as possible.
According to an exit poll, 8% more voters supported Harris. She is leading in three swing states and tied in three others. In Pennsylvania, the number of female voters who have already cast their ballots is significantly higher than male voters. These women overwhelmingly support Harris. In the same state, half of the votes came from seniors, typically a demographic favoring Trump, yet only 35% reportedly voted Republican. Trump's supporters tend to prefer voting on Election Day, whereas in Georgia, 700,000 individuals who did not vote in 2020 have already voted. These individuals are primarily from rural areas, Republican strongholds.