World
October 16, 2024 17:10
amsterdam - The recent invasion of the Russian border region Koersk by Ukraine seems to be facing challenges as Russian forces are regaining control of nearly half of the conquered territory.
The conquest of the Russian border region Koersk was supposed to be the centerpiece of the Ukrainian peace plan. However, after over two months of fighting, it appears that the Russians are close to reclaiming almost half of the area that Kiev had previously captured.
Weather has once again become a significant factor for the warring parties. While in the initial stages of the conflict, numerous images emerged of Russian vehicles getting stuck, this time it's the Ukrainians who seem to be at a disadvantage.
The Russian and Ukrainian 'mud season,' known as rasputitsa, is notorious for hindering smooth movement over paths and fields. With Moscow having more tracked vehicles than Kiev, they now have the logistical advantage in Koersk. According to a senior Chechen officer, the Russians are conducting a counteroffensive with around 50,000 troops.
An analyst from the Finnish online research group Black Bird explains in The Telegraph that the terrain is favorable for the attacking party, in this case, the Russians. 'The area is characterized by large open fields with limited natural cover. Without proper reinforcements, defending it can be challenging.'
The American think tank ISW estimates, based on 'visual evidence,' that Moscow has recaptured 46% of the territory from Kiev. This raises questions about the wisdom of Kiev's bold 'Koersk offensive.' The initial objective was to boost troop morale and force the Russians to redeploy forces and equipment quickly to the new frontline, weakening their positions on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Initially, the operation seemed successful. To the surprise of many, including Russian generals, Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia in early August. By mid-August, the highest-ranking Ukrainian general, Oleksandr Syrsky, claimed his army had taken over 100 Russian villages. In total, Kiev had conquered about 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory, of which only half remains.
Several defense experts argue that the military maneuver weakened Ukrainian lines in Donbas rather than those of the Russians. The director of the American think tank Quincy Institute, George Beebe, recently described the operation as a 'blunder.' Moscow has significantly increased its military activity in eastern Ukraine, capturing the strategically important town of Voehledar two weeks ago and reaching the outskirts of the strategically located mining town of Toretsk in recent days.
Meanwhile, Volodimir Zelenski insists that the situation in Koersk is 'stable.' For the Ukrainian president, it is crucial to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. He presented his long-anticipated 'victory plan' to the Ukrainian parliament, focusing on obtaining a NATO membership invitation as a priority. This would allow Ukraine to 'shoot down Russian missiles and planes with partners.'
Furthermore, Ukraine plans to use more drones and missiles, removing all restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Engaging in battles on Russian soil, like in Koersk, could raise awareness among the Russian population about the ongoing war, potentially fueling domestic discontent towards the Kremlin.
Zelenski also envisions a post-war role for Ukrainian soldiers within NATO after defeating Russia, replacing American troops in Europe. Over 60,000 American troops are currently stationed on the continent. Zelenski will explain his strategy for winning the war at the European summit on Thursday.