What Lies Ahead for Ukraine in 2025? Waiting for Donald Trump

amsterdam - 2025 holds uncertainties for Ukraine as the country faces challenges in its ongoing war with Russia. The role of Donald Trump in the future of the conflict remains uncertain.

Despite occasional military successes, Ukraine finds itself in trouble after three years of war. The country has been losing territory since summer and faces a shortage of manpower. Russia conquered six times more territory in 2024 than the previous year. President Volodimir Zelenski recently admitted that Ukraine will not be able to reclaim all the areas taken by Russia. The population is war-weary, with more than half of respondents in a recent poll expressing a desire for a quick ceasefire, even if it means giving up territory.

Russia, on the other hand, is also experiencing significant challenges. The losses in the war are staggering, with over 700,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded. The Russian army has lost at least 3,500 tanks and thousands of artillery pieces. Estimates suggest Russian losses at the front have reached 1,500 soldiers per day, an unsustainable figure in the long term. The Russian economy is under immense pressure, with the ruble losing over 30% of its value, soaring interest rates, and inflation officially exceeding 8%. The real inflation rate is much higher, leading to skyrocketing prices for essential goods.

Both sides face considerable hardships, prompting discussions in Washington and Brussels on ways to end the conflict. The future prospects for Ukraine remain uncertain, with NATO membership unlikely in the near future as several NATO members, including the US, are hesitant. Some European voices suggest the possibility of stationing troops in Ukraine post-war, but specific plans are yet to materialize.

There is talk of forming a 'coalition of the willing' to protect Ukraine, with Zelenski emphasizing the critical role of US military power in deterring Putin. However, whether the incoming US president, Donald Trump, will support this is unclear. Trump has sent mixed signals, expressing support for Ukraine while also criticizing decisions made by his predecessor Joe Biden.

Trump's appointments hint at a push for ceasefire negotiations, with his incoming national security adviser emphasizing the need for a strategic approach. The influence of Elon Musk in the Trump administration adds another layer of uncertainty for Ukraine, given Musk's conflicting stances on Ukrainian aid and communications with Putin.

Despite the challenges, some remain optimistic about Ukraine's future. Ljoebka, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Central European Strategy, sees potential for collaboration between Trump and Zelenski, drawing parallels between the two leaders' backgrounds in show business.