War in Ukraine Could Halve Russia's Population by End of Century

amsterdam - The ongoing war in Ukraine has devastating consequences for Russia, leading to a potential halving of the population by the end of the century.

"The impact on Russian society is devastating," said Harley Balzer, professor of public administration and international relations at Georgetown University, in an interview with the Kyiv Independent. "From the Russian perspective, winning the war with Ukraine is the least of their problems. The biggest question is: will there be a viable country left after the war?"

According to Ukrainian sources, more than 800,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war. Over half of this number, 427,000, has fallen in the past year alone, as reported by Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi. To put this into perspective, during the six-year Second World War, total British losses amounted to 750,000 men.

Nicholas Eberhardt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that Russia already had a significant demographic problem before the war in Ukraine. "The Russian Federation was already trapped in a 'demographic straitjacket' long before the invasion. Life expectancy for young men was at 'Fourth World' levels even before the war and the pandemic. A 15-year-old Russian boy had the same life expectancy as his counterpart in Haiti."

The excessive alcohol abuse among a large portion of the male Russian population was the main cause of this situation. This led to more broken relationships, traffic accidents, murders, and suicides. Furthermore, the birth rate in Russia has been declining since 2015, a problem also seen in many Western countries, but these countries attract immigrants, unlike Russia.

The war in Ukraine has dramatically worsened the already fragile demographic situation in Russia. This deterioration is not just a result of the high number of casualties, but also due to the existential uncertainty in the country. Hundreds of thousands of young Russians have fled abroad, and the influx of immigrants from former Russian republics to Russia has ceased.

This is attributed to Russia's policy of sending men from these regions as cannon fodder to the Ukrainian front. For example, men from the Buryat Republic have 50 to 100 percent higher chances of being sent to the front compared to men from St. Petersburg or Moscow.

"The high number of casualties is not even the main factor, especially given that many are 40 to 60 years old," said Balzer. "The most important aspect is what this does to Russian society." Experts point out the high numbers of alcohol and drug addicts, PTSD cases, as well as the increased murders and violent crimes committed by war veterans. These conditions create an environment where people are afraid to have more children.

Russia faces another challenge aside from demographic decline. In the West and Asia, decreasing populations are partially offset by scientific and technological innovation, a feat Russia struggles to achieve despite its high education level. Eberstadt highlighted that there is a vast pool of talent in Russia, but a small portion is converted into productive science or economic prosperity.

Even before the war in Ukraine, Russia was the only developed country where the number of academics was decreasing. The emigration of graduates increased from 14,000 to 70,000 between 2014 and 2021. Since the war in Ukraine, an estimated 2,500 scientists working at Russian universities have left the country.

In addition, hundreds of thousands of young, highly educated Russians have emigrated. Currently, around 700,000 Russian immigrants are registered in Dubai alone.

Putin is fully aware that Russia is facing a demographic time bomb. When he took office as Russian leader in 2000, he warned in his inauguration speech that Russia was at risk of becoming a 'weakened nation' due to the population decrease. Despite various efforts, from making abortion and birth control harder to offering incentives for families to have more children, marginal improvements were achieved.

The only successful method Putin employed to increase the Russian population was through annexation of non-Russian territories and massive abduction of children residing in those regions. The annexation of Crimea immediately added 2.4 million Russians. However, this move resulted in a sharp decrease in immigration from Ukraine and former republics like Moldova.

One silver lining for Putin is Ukraine's own, potentially even more severe, demographic crisis. Since the start of the war in 2014 with the Russian annexation of Crimea, 10 million Ukrainians have left the country, reducing the population to 37 million.