Putin's Threat with Nuclear Weapons: Bluff or Real Intent?

amsterdam - Many experts are trying to understand Putin's recent threat to use nuclear weapons amidst escalating tensions with the West.

As the US ATACMS missiles could potentially be deployed on Russian soil, Putin has revised his nuclear weapons doctrine. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov mentioned that 'the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression with conventional weapons against it or Belarus.' Nuclear weapons could also be used against countries that do not possess them, if they assist in an attack on Russia.

Despite the ominous tone of updating military doctrine, experts like Paul van Hooft from RAND think that this does not necessarily indicate an automatic response. He highlighted the unique decision-making process surrounding nuclear crises, which ultimately rests on one individual.

While Putin's threats may sound alarming, analysts are cautious about directly interpreting them as signs of imminent nuclear conflict. Russia has previously rattled its nuclear arsenal during tense geopolitical moments, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion threats against Ukraine in 2022.

Lawrence Freedman, a war studies professor, argues that there are few scenarios where Putin could benefit from using nuclear weapons. Threatening with nuclear missiles may be the only sensible application of such destructive force, considering the extreme consequences even tactical nuclear weapons would bring.

General Han Bouwmeester from the Dutch Defense Academy emphasized the international implications of any nuclear action by Putin, suggesting that countries like India and China, despite their support for Russia in certain forums, would not tolerate overt nuclear aggression due to the far-reaching consequences it would entail.

Reflecting on Putin's decision-making process, some experts raise concerns about potential irrationality intertwined with issues of power, prestige, and emotion. While some believe that Putin's actions have been based on misguided intelligence rather than rationality, others argue for a mix of calculated risks and strategic objectives in his geopolitical maneuvers.

The debate on Putin's mindset continues among experts, with some viewing him as predictably rational, while others underscore his unpredictability driven by a quest for historical legacy and influence on the global stage.

As countries like Sweden prepare their populations for the worst-case scenario of a nuclear conflict, discussions around civil defense measures and mental preparedness for such crises are gaining traction in other nations like the Netherlands.