World
October 31, 2024 12:00
tel aviv - There is newfound hope for an end to the bloody wars in the Middle East as signs of progress emerge. Eight reasons, including surprising developments such as the Netanyahu son's wedding, indicate a potential shift towards peace.
The United States has formulated a peace proposal for Lebanon, paving the way for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. President Donald Trump has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to conclude the war in Gaza before his January inauguration if he wins the upcoming election next week.
Amos Hochstein, special envoy of Joe Biden, is set to travel to Israel to expedite a Lebanon deal. Israeli media have shared details of the proposal, which the government seems receptive towards.
Within the Israeli military, there is a growing realization that major military objectives in both Gaza and Lebanon have been achieved. Concerns are raised about the challenges of prolonged presence in these areas, particularly with the approaching winter, making operations in mountainous Lebanon more difficult.
The image of the military and security services, tarnished on 7th October last year, has been restored following a series of successful operations, notably in Lebanon. The risk of exhaustion leading to a reversal of fortunes is acknowledged.
Hezbollah is eager for an end to the conflict. The movement has suffered significant setbacks recently, with Israel estimating that only 20% of their once feared missile arsenal remains. While Hezbollah continues to launch projectiles at Israel daily, casualties have been minimal.
Leadership within the movement has been severely impacted. The newly appointed Naim Qassem has indicated openness to a ceasefire in his inaugural speech, dropping the precondition of a Gaza ceasefire before discussing a deal in Lebanon.
As a result, American strategy has shifted towards prioritizing a ceasefire in Lebanon, which would subsequently lead to an agreement in Gaza. This marks a departure from previous approaches.
The American proposal, to be presented by Amos Hochstein in Israel, calls for the implementation of the agreement within two months, with Israeli forces required to withdraw from Lebanon in the first week.
The Lebanese army would deploy to the south and neutralize remaining Hezbollah facilities, preventing the terror group from operating in the region. This proposal draws parallels to UN resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war but was flouted by Hezbollah. A key difference is Israel's retained right to conduct targeted military operations in Lebanon and reconnaissance flights over the neighboring country.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nijab Mikati cautiously welcomes the proposal, hoping for a ceasefire within days. Israeli officials, however, doubt the likelihood of a deal before the U.S. presidential elections.
Joe Biden is keen on achieving a diplomatic success before 5th November, which could benefit Kamala Harris on election day. The Israeli government and a majority of the Israeli populace prefer a Trump victory.
Though Trump has urged Netanyahu to swiftly conclude the war, the release of hostages remains a significant obstacle. There was optimism that Hamas might show flexibility following Yahya Sinwar's death, yet no such signs have emerged. Mediators from Qatar and Egypt anticipate heightened challenges due to the absence of a central figure.
Hamas demands an end to the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in exchange for releasing all hostages, a condition Netanyahu rejects. The hope now lies in Hamas potentially compromising if a Lebanon agreement is reached, leaving them isolated.
Iran is also likely to push for a swift diplomatic resolution to avoid military retaliation following recent Israeli attacks. The ayatollahs initially maintained restraint but have adopted a more threatening stance as the extent of damage in the country becomes evident. An agreement in Lebanon could provide a solution, alleviating concerns of further escalation.
This prospect uplifts the Israeli population, closely monitoring the son of Prime Minister Netanyahu's wedding plans for potential insights. Avner Netanyahu's wedding is scheduled for 26th November just north of Tel Aviv.
The Prime Minister contemplates requesting his son to postpone the event due to potential risks, especially after Hezbollah targeted Avner's villa in Caesarea. Failure to do so could indicate progress towards a deal.