World
December 6, 2024 13:10
tel aviv - Jihadist rebels are at the gates of Homs in Syria causing fear among the local population. Recent violence has led to over 800 casualties. Read more on the latest developments.
Jihadist rebels are advancing towards Homs in Syria, sparking fear among the local population. Recent reports indicate that thousands of Alawites have fled the city in the past 24 hours, with many soldiers abandoning their positions. The regime has so far been unable to halt the unprecedented advance of the rebels, led by the Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) terror group. Both Russia and Iran have not provided the military support needed to stop the insurgents, as morale within the Syrian army appears to be deteriorating in many areas. Even a significant increase in salaries implemented last week has failed to improve the situation.
However, the rebels themselves may soon face challenges. After a series of rapid conquests, capturing over 250 villages and towns in a week, they risk being stretched thin, with insufficient manpower to control all areas they have taken and expand their offensive further.
The rebels seized Hama on Thursday, marking a significant strategic and symbolic victory. Hama is the city where Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez, brutally suppressed an Islamist uprising in 1982, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. This event is considered by many to be the root of the revolution that began against Bashar in 2011. Residents of Hama took down a statue of Hafez on Thursday, reminiscent of the toppling of Saddam Hussein's statue by Americans in Iraq.
The rebels have swiftly moved from Hama towards Homs, now only a few kilometers away from the city. If Homs falls, the regime will not only lose a direct link to the Alawite heartland but also key ports along the Mediterranean Sea. Concurrently, unrest is increasing in the southern part of the country, with a growing number of regime opponents taking to the streets.
Meanwhile, the Alawites fear the wrath of the rebels. Assad, their leader, has been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, particularly Sunnis, over the past thirteen years. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has urged his fighters not to seek revenge. The violence in the past nine days has claimed over 800 lives, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, leading to around 300,000 Syrians fleeing their homes.
With millions of displaced persons in Syria, a significant portion residing in Idlib, the province in the northwest mainly controlled by HTS, the former al-Qaeda affiliate has managed to establish a strong political and military presence over the past four years, now expanding its influence to Aleppo. Al-Jolani, for whom the Americans have offered a $10 million reward, portrays himself as an inclusive, moderate leader advocating for minorities. However, the true nature of this transformation versus mere PR tactics will unfold in the coming weeks and months.
Israel is closely monitoring the situation in the neighboring country, reportedly conducting multiple airstrikes this week to prevent advanced weapons from falling into the hands of the advancing rebels. While Israel desires a weakened Assad to reduce his role in Iranian arms smuggling to Hezbollah, it also worries about a jihadist takeover in Syria.
Eight years ago, Assad, with support from Russia and Iran, managed to avert such a scenario. However, these countries are currently less proactive. Russia conducted airstrikes last week to aid the regime, but the intensity was far lower than in previous operations. A significant reduction in the number of combat aircraft in Syria, largely due to the conflict in Ukraine, has been noted.
Simultaneously, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is advancing eastward, launching attacks on Kurdish-held territories. Ankara aims to leverage rebel successes to extract diplomatic concessions from the Assad regime. President Erdogan seeks to establish a buffer zone where Kurds at the border would make way for returning Syrian refugees, viewing the Kurdish YPG militia, closely linked to the PKK, as a major threat.
The arrival of rebels seems to have been welcomed by the local population in their initial actions. In Hama, prison doors were opened on Thursday, freeing opponents of the regime who had been detained since the 1982 massacre. Al-Jolani now eyes the next city along the Aleppo-Damascus highway: Homs. "Your time has come," declared the jihadist leader.
Whether the rebels can truly pose a threat to the capital Damascus, where Assad's strongest military units are stationed, remains uncertain. However, with a large number of Alawites fleeing, there is a possibility of internal regime dissent.
Islamic State will undoubtedly be closely monitoring the battlefield developments. In the past, IS exploited Syria's civil war to establish a caliphate, with Raqqa as its capital. Although dismantled years ago, there are concerns that IS may exploit the current chaos in the country. Due to the rebel advance, a significant portion of regime troops has been redeployed from the central desert, where IS remains strong.
The YPG, once pivotal in the fight against IS and a key Western ally, is now more concerned about pro-Turkish rebels. The U.S. maintains around 900 troops in eastern Syria, primarily observing the situation.