World
January 15, 2025 20:42
tel aviv - After heavy pressure from Trump, Israel and Hamas finally reached an agreement on Wednesday evening. However, even before the deal comes into effect, the first obstacle arises.
Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on Wednesday evening after heavy pressure from Trump. But even before the deal comes into effect, the first obstacle arises. The Israeli cabinet is set to vote on the deal on Thursday morning. An extreme right-wing coalition partner has stated that they will step out of the government, while another party is seriously considering it.
Following that, a lesser hurdle will follow: Israeli citizens will have 48 hours to submit petitions to the Supreme Court against the release of Palestinian prisoners. It is expected that each petition will be rejected by the judges: the general interest is simply too great.
If everything goes according to plan, the implementation of the deal will begin early next week with the release of the first three female hostages. Red Cross workers will play an important role, similar to fourteen months ago. At that time, it was nerve-wracking until the last minute to see if Hamas would adhere to the agreements. It will undoubtedly be the same this time.
The previous ceasefire lasted only a week, this time the release of 33 captives will be spread over a period of six weeks. A long period in which much can go wrong. In this first phase, only women, men over fifty, and people in very poor condition will be released. Israelis fervently hope that the only two children will also be released. Hamas reported some time ago that Kfir and Ariel Bibas are dead, but Israel has never confirmed this.
It has also been agreed that 600 trucks of aid will enter Gaza daily. A small glitch can have immediate significant consequences. Many Palestinians in Gaza celebrated Wednesday evening after the agreement was reached. Not only because of the expected cessation of hostilities, but also because of the hope that much more aid will enter.
A major problem is that due to a new law, Israeli authorities will no longer be able to cooperate with UNRWA, the controversial but key aid provider in Gaza by the end of this month. Additionally, conflicts will undoubtedly arise over certain materials that Hamas wants but Israel refuses to allow because they can also be used for weapon production.
But the biggest obstacle will arise from day sixteen of the ceasefire. By that time, about a third of the 33 captives will hopefully have been released, but there is a real chance that it will falter. Israel and Hamas will then have to sit down with the mediators to negotiate the second phase: the release of the remaining captives in exchange for the withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza and a 'sustainable calm'.
It doesn't seem like Israel is willing to end the war against Hamas. The terrorist organization is no longer the military force it was when it brutally invaded Israel on October 7.
At the same time, it is far from defeated. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this week that Hamas recruited nearly as many new fighters in the past fifteen months as Israel managed to kill in the same period.
Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners will never agree to leave Gaza. They fear not only for Israel's security but also that their dream of annexing parts of Gaza will be shattered.
The only hope is that the unpredictable Trump will be able to force a solution. His pressure on Hamas, the mediators Egypt and Qatar, as well as Netanyahu, led to an agreement finally being reached after numerous attempts by Joe Biden.
But the Republican probably has grander plans for his second term than just small Gaza: the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and definitively averting the danger of a nuclear Iran.
Perhaps those goals are enough motivation to still compel an end to the war in Gaza.