Are Voters Fooling Pollsters Again with Trump? Last Predictions for Election Results
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World
October 31, 2024 19:10
amsterdam - With less than a week to go until the big election day, the final poll results are causing a stir. Who will come out on top, Harris or Trump?
With less than a week to go until the big election day, the final poll results are causing a stir among interested parties. Predictions remain uncertain as very few pollsters dare to predict a clear victory for either candidate at this moment.
A complicating factor in U.S. polls is the difference between national polls and state-level polls. While national polls are intriguing, state-level surveys actually provide more insights as the U.S. president is elected based on state wins (and the accompanying electoral votes). Narrow leads in swing states indicate a strong possibility of winning the White House.
The margins of victory from recent polls often fall within the margin of error, meaning the actual outcome could favor the other candidate. NBC News reports that 124 out of 321 recent swing state polls fall within the '1 percent margin of error'.
In 2016, polls predicted a clear win for Democrat Joe Biden, but he ultimately won with smaller numbers against Donald Trump, showcasing an underestimation by pollsters. The AAPOR, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, concluded that the polling error in 2020 was of 'unusual magnitude' not seen since Reagan's landslide win in 1980.
The unpredictability in polling is attributed to shifts in the electorate caused by Trump's 2016 victory, leading to challenges in accurately gauging voter turnout. The 2020 race remains tight with Trump leading in certain state polls while Harris is favored in others.
Prominent pollsters like Nate Silver urge caution in predictions due to past polling failures. The current consensus among pollsters points to a close race with differing predictions for swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The uncertainty in polling outcomes raises questions about potential errors in forecasting, similar to the miscalculations in 2016 and 2020. The near tie in current polls suggests a possible landslide victory for one candidate post-election day.